Middle East politics consume Biden and the Hill

Oct 31, 2023

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The Muslim backlash to President Joe Biden is growing, and severe, across the country. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

FUNDING FIGHT — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN made a forceful case on the Hill today for the White House’s supplemental funding request to send aid to Ukraine, Israel and more. Austin delivered a stark warning in particular about what will happen if the U.S. stops supporting Kyiv: “Sooner or later, [Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN] will challenge NATO and we will find ourselves in a shooting war.”

Passing the $105 billion package would also rebuke enemies around the world who are “making the bet that the United States is too divided or distracted at home to stay the course,” Blinken argued.

The Biden administration has plenty of backing in the Senate, including from Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who continued to advocate for linking the issues together: “Iran would love to see a Russian victory against Ukraine,” he said, per Burgess Everett. “The threats facing America and our allies are serious and are intertwined.”

But they face a tough path in the House, where Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has harnessed conservative energy (and skepticism of Kyiv) to push for a stand-alone Israel aid bill. Blinken and Austin also got plenty of resistance from the other end of the spectrum, as Code Pink protesters repeatedly interrupted the Senate Appropriations hearing to demand a cease-fire in Israel and the Palestinian territories, holding up hands made up to look bloody, Caitlin Emma and Connor O’Brien report.

Blinken wouldn’t go there on a cease-fire when asked by Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), instead saying that Israel should be able to defend itself but must do so in accordance with international laws.

In the Senate, there were glimmers of movement that could indicate a possible path forward on the funding package: McConnell suggested that bipartisan border security steps could be added. And Sen. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) told Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig that he was open to changes to make the asylum system more efficient. Blinken is now meeting with Johnson.

New worries: FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY, also testifying on the Hill today, warned that Hamas has the potential to inspire more extremist attack plans around the world — including in the U.S. — than anything since the Islamic State.

Up next: The Senate will vote this afternoon on JACK LEW’s nomination as U.S. ambassador to Israel. And the minibus is back, as the chamber holds more amendment votes on the three-bill spending package.

MORE MIDDLE EAST FALLOUT — Deep divides on the American left over the Israel-Hamas war are stoking concerns about a generational split, with comparisons to the Vietnam War and Soviet communism, WSJ’s Molly Ball reports. The political ramifications for Democrats are uncertain, but they could be significant. Activists on both sides “describe a feeling of disillusionment” and total abandonment by erstwhile allies over matters of fundamental morality.

The Muslim backlash to President JOE BIDEN is growing: The National Muslim Democratic Council warned in a letter that if Biden doesn’t push Israel to implement a cease-fire by 5 p.m. today, they will “mobilize millions of Muslim voters to withhold donations and votes towards President Joe Biden's 2024 reelection,” Reuters’ Andrea Shalal and Andrew Hay report. Top Muslim leaders around the country say that Biden needs to do more to stop the bloodshed, while the U.S. and Israel largely maintain that the impetus is on Hamas.

And in a shocking new poll, the percentage of Arab Americans saying they’ll vote for Biden plunges from the 59% he received in 2020 to just 17%, Time’s Yasmeen Serhan reports. Beyond just the president, the percentage of Arab Americans who identify with the Democratic Party has plummeted from more than half to 23%. That could pose a serious political threat to Biden’s reelect, especially in Michigan.

The debate is playing out loudly in Westchester, where Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN’s (D-N.Y.) vocal insistence on a cease-fire could imperil his reelection bid, NYT’s Nicholas Fandos reports. Bowman has blasted both Hamas and Israel, criticizing other Democrats for not valuing Palestinian lives as much as Israelis. That has provoked a Jewish backlash, as Westchester County Executive GEORGE LATIMER moves toward a potential primary challenge. ELIOT ENGEL, the pro-Israel Democrat whom Bowman unseated, calls him an “embarrassment.” Allies say Bowman’s stand will be validated by history and voters.

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

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ALL POLITICS

POPULARITY CONTEST — The latest monthly polling from Morning Consult takes stock of the nation’s most and least popular governors and senators in their home states, Eli Yokley reports. Topping the list: Vermont Gov. PHIL SCOTT (83% approval for a Republican in a blue state!), Wyoming Gov. MARK GORDON and New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU; and Sens. JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.), BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii) and CYNTHIA LUMMIS (R-Wyo.). On the flip side, the leaders with the highest disapproval ratings were Iowa Gov. KIM REYNOLDS, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, Mississippi Gov. TATE REEVES, McConnell, Collins and Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.).

A few notable stats for key upcoming races:

Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) and TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.) are among the 10 most unpopular senators. Manchin’s numbers have improved lately, but they’re still much worse than his likely GOP opponent, Gov. JIM JUSTICE.

Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), on the other hand, is one of the 10 most popular.

Kentucky Gov. ANDY BESHEAR has remained popular through his reelection campaign, while Reeves’ poor numbers could open the door for an upset.

RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT — North Carolina Gov. ROY COOPER tells WaPo’s Leigh Ann Caldwell and Theo Meyer that Democrats will challenge Republicans’ new congressional map in court, calling it “gerrymandering on steroids.” Dems and others in the state are working on a lawsuit, but they haven’t decided yet whether they’ll cite the Voting Rights Act or the 14th Amendment. Regardless, their chances of clawing back even one of the four seats that could flip to the GOP are far from certain.

BIG SWING — The AP is out with a major package of reporting that examines the tensions between the right to bear arms and other rights, as a deluge of guns and “an increasingly absolutist interpretation of the Second Amendment” transform the American landscape. “To many Americans, that violence feels like a growing threat to some of the freedoms that give meaning to everyday life. The right to worship in peace. To go to school. To ‘the pursuit of happiness’ that the nation’s founders so prized,” the AP writes. “To many of their fellow Americans, equally weary of menace, the right to guns is an essential means of protecting precious liberties. And the tension between those beliefs is rising.”

ENDORSEMENT WATCH — Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) threw her support behind former Rep. MONDAIRE JONES in his New York primary against LIZ WHITMER GEREGHTY, per Punchbowl’s Max Cohen.

CONGRESS

ALL THAT GLITTERS — “Never Enough,” by Nina Burleigh for N.Y. Mag: “It’s virtually impossible to disentangle the love story of New Jersey’s showman senator [BOB MENENDEZ] and his wife [NADINE] from the charges against them. According to one of his friends, he had nicknamed her ‘Bubbles,’ a reference to her cleavage, and she would swoon to a podcaster in 2020 that ‘he is such a perfect gentleman.’ Texts cited in the indictment reveal an exceptionally affectionate relationship. But also one that seemed to thrill in a flashy lifestyle that likely attracted the Department of Justice’s attention and might just bring down his career.”

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS — Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) is introducing legislation that would undo Citizens United v. FEC, the kind of campaign finance reform that usually comes from Democrats, RealClearPolitics’ Philip Wegmann scooped.

THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — “Santos Campaign Meltdown Attracts Interest From House Investigators,” by Talking Points Memo’s Hunter Walker and Josh Kovensky: “Angry text messages show [Rep. GEORGE] SANTOS feuding with a GOP operative who is cooperating with a House ethics probe.”

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POLICY CORNER

TAKING OUT THE TRASH — The Biden administration is taking aim once again at “junk fees,” this time the ones tied to investment advice for retirement, the White House announced today. The Labor Department is putting forth new proposed rules to force financial advisers to put customers above their own profit margins, UPI’s A.L. Lee reports. That would increase scrutiny on hidden costs that pad financial advisers’ pockets without benefiting consumers.

TAKING ON HATE — Education Secretary MIGUEL CARDONA yesterday heard from many Jewish leaders about how to combat antisemitism and protect Jewish students at American schools, Bianca Quilantan reports. “Several people commended Cardona’s leadership in the meeting and noted that he directed his team to write down and take action on some of the recommendations.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

THE LEADING EDGE — The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is the country’s most conservative court, frequently pushing jurisprudence to the right — and sometimes going too far for even the conservative Supreme Court, USA Today’s John Fritze reports. The New Orleans-based court, on which six of 16 judges were appointed by Trump, is the origin of blockbuster case after blockbuster case, from the CFPB to mifepristone to bump stocks.

TAKING OFF TODAY — “Antitrust trial begins to determine fate of JetBlue-Spirit merger,” by WaPo’s Stephanie Morales and Lori Aratani in Boston: It’s “the first time an airline merger case has gone before a judge. The Justice Department is challenging JetBlue’s proposed acquisition of the ultra-low-cost carrier, while New York-based JetBlue contends the only way it can break the dominance of the nation’s four largest carriers is a merger with Spirit. … It will be up to U.S. District Court Judge WILLIAM YOUNG to make a final determination in the closely watched case, which is expected to last nearly three weeks.”

MEDIAWATCH

WATCHING THE WATCHMEN — “Forbes reporters say sources are concerned about new ownership of magazine,” by Semafor’s Max Tani: “[S]ome sources are refusing to share sensitive information with them due to their new reported ownership. Earlier this month, the Washington Post reported that MAGOMED MUSAEV, a Russian business tycoon, was behind the purchase of Forbes from its current owner.”

GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE.

THE ECONOMY

WHAT THE FED IS WATCHING — Wages and benefits grew 1.1% in the third quarter, per the Labor Department’s Employment Cost Index, NYT’s Jeanna Smialek reports. That constitutes moderate growth: a notch higher than economists expected and than in the second quarter, but considerably down from last year. Slower but still robust wage growth is a mixed signal for the Fed, which wants inflation (in which workers’ pay is a significant factor) to come down without damaging U.S. households’ standard of living.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Though the U.S. and China are working to thaw diplomatic and economic relations ahead of an expected Biden-XI JINPING meeting, military links remain as tense as ever, WSJ’s Chun Han Wong reports from Singapore. Though the U.S. says it wants to bring back some defense ties, Chinese and Russian defense leaders lashed out at Washington at a security conference in Beijing. “Wherever their hands extend to, that is where peace and quiet isn’t possible,” said Gen. ZHANG YOUXIA.

— “The Latest Tech Caught in the U.S.-China Trade War: Lasers,” by WSJ’s Heather Somerville: “Some in Washington are worried Hesai’s dominance in the technology threatens national security, arguing that China could use it to collect data or launch a cyberattack and that U.S. investors are funding the company’s development.”

PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVE — Mimi Montgomery is joining Axios as a co-author of the Axios DC newsletter, focusing on real estate and lifestyle. She previously was an editor at Washingtonian.

TRANSITION — Speaker Mike Johnson is bringing on Billy Constangy as executive director of his political team, per Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman. He previously has been leadership chief of staff for Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.).

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