5 Questions for James Pethokoukis

Presented by Spectrum for the Future: How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures
Sep 29, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Derek Robertson

Presented by Spectrum for the Future

James Pethokoukis.

James Pethokoukis. | American Enterprise Institute

Hello, and welcome to this week’s edition of The Future in Five Questions. This week I interviewed James Pethokoukis, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former business journalist. His forthcoming book, “The Conservative Futurist,” makes the case that dynamic American capitalism can unlock a new age of technological progress and abundance. We spoke about why he thinks the government must vastly boost its research funding, his favorite sci-fi book series, and why we were wrong to ridicule Newt Gingrich for talking about lunar colonies during a presidential debate that one time. The following conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity:

What’s one underrated big idea?

I don't think people naturally think of creating a permanent presence on the moon as a pro-growth, pro-economy idea. When Newt Gingrich suggested it during a presidential debate back in 2012 he was wrongly mocked, including by Mitt Romney, but I think that actually should be a national goal — not just for prestige reasons or making people feel good about what America’s accomplished, but for actual economic reasons. It would be a great proof of concept. If we can go to the moon, stay there, do things like mine for water, or rocket fuel, or helium-3, which could be used for fusion energy, it would be a great proof of concept for asteroid mining, which would really open the entire bounty of the solar system to us.

What’s a technology that you think is overhyped?

AI has been overly hyped in its dystopian potential and under-hyped as far as what it can do, both in making us more productive in what we do every day as well as creating huge advances in drug discovery, or helping enable nuclear fusion research.

What book most shaped your conception of the future?

"The Expanse" series, which is a science fiction series that takes place several hundred years in the future. It is a future of both progress and problems. We have mastered the solar system, we asteroid mine, we’ve built technologies which get us from here to Jupiter fairly quickly, we have super-smart computers, but there are still problems. We survived the 21st century and threats of pandemic, climate change, and nuclear war, but there might be more war between us and Mars in the distant colonies.

This showed me that's what progress is about. It's about solving some problems, but then there will always be new problems, and then we'll solve those problems too and keep moving forward. A lot of people view it as dystopian because of the problems it depicts, but it’s optimistic because in 300 years we're still around.

What could government be doing regarding technology that it isn’t?

It’s something they've already been talking about, which is increasing science funding. But I would increase it way more, I would take science research funding broadly back to Apollo levels as a share of GDP. I think one of the biggest mistakes we’ve made is that we didn't follow Project Apollo with something else on that scale.

Maybe it would have been “Project Clean Energy,” or who knows. But I think having a big definable problem that we're trying to solve is helpful. Maybe that project would have been taking the space program further, colonizing the moon and then Mars, but we decided not to do that. To me, that is something that both conservatives and liberals should agree on.

What has surprised you the most this year?

It is an almost supernatural coincidence that this year marks the 50th anniversary of what I call “The Great Downshift” in U.S. productivity growth, which happened in 1973. Here we are, it's the 50th anniversary, and it really seems as if there is something amazing happening every day, whether it’s another breakthrough in nuclear fusion, or the mRNA vaccine, or most obviously what seems like warp-speed progress happening in AI. It's coincidental, but it's a wonderful coincidence that here we are at this inflection point away from slow growth and stagnation to rapid growth, rapid progress, and the kind of future that we dreamed about in the immediate postwar decades and again in the late 1990s.

 

A message from Spectrum for the Future:

A shared spectrum approach to 5G in the 3.1-3.45 GHz band would offer greater economic value and consumer benefits than exclusive licensing. Read the new economic study.

 
a farewell to nfts (sort of)

LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: A customer waits in line at the grand opening of the Bored & Hungry pop-up burger restaurant, which uses NFT art for its branding, on April 9, 2022 in Long Beach, California. The restaurant is using images from the popular Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT (non-fungible token) art series with the owner stating that Bored & Hungry is the first   food concept to utilize crypto art for branding. The Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT series generated more than $1 billion in sales last year. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

The Bored & Hungry pop-up burger restaurant in Long Beach, California. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

Spare a thought for the not-so-humble NFT (or, in case you don’t recall, non-fungible token): The blockchain-assisted, highly-speculative art medium has lost nearly all its peak collective value.

Crypto news website The Block shows the current NFT market cap at around $42 million, a miniscule fraction of its $3.2 billion peak back in the salad days of August 2021.

“The vast majority of NFTs are worthless,” according to a report from crypto gambling website dappGamble. It finds that of 73,257 NFT collections they identified, nearly 70,000 of them have a market cap of zero Ether. At that, nearly 80 percent of them have remained unsold; it doesn’t take an economics wizard to identify the supply-and-demand effect now at play in the marketplace.

So what’s next? NFT optimists have always said that the technology wasn’t merely a vehicle for speculative art sales, but could serve as a legitimate new token of authenticity in a decentralized digital world. And some big digital payments players still believe that, or at least are willing to entertain the idea: Just this week PayPal published patent papers (originally filed last year) showing they’re exploring the technology’s use.

 

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podcast catch-up

Senior White House official Anne Neuberger speaks.

Senior White House official Anne Neuberger speaks at the POLITICO Tech & AI Summit on Wednesday, September 27, 2023. | Rod Lamkey for POLITICO

One more blast from this week’s AI & Tech summit before the weekend: POLITICO’s Steven Overly interviewed Anne Neuberger, the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging tech, available today as an episode of the POLITICO Tech podcast.

Neuberger warned the audience about cybersecurity threats China poses to Taiwan, saying they’ll be heightened ahead of Taiwan’s January election. She said the U.S. is “putting our best teams to hunt on their most sensitive networks to help identify any current intrusions and to help remediate and make those networks as strong as possible.”

Neuberger also voiced optimism about Washington’s ability to work hand-in-hand with AI developers after a series of voluntary commitments from industry, and said a forthcoming executive order on AI would be “a bridge” to legislative efforts on the Hill.

 

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A shared spectrum approach to 5G can create nearly $19 BILLION in economic value, with additional non-private benefits, while helping spur innovation and investment in agriculture, manufacturing, shipping, and other key sectors. Discover what’s possible with shared spectrum.

 
 

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