| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | | |  Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in a new poll of GOP primary voters, all while the Georgia investigation into his efforts to influence the 2020 election intensifies. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | It’s another day of dueling realities for DONALD TRUMP. As the Georgia investigation into the former president’s efforts to subvert the 2020 election intensifies, a new poll showcases Trump’s teflon tendencies among the GOP electorate. IN GEORGIA — Fulton County Superior Court Judge ROBERT McBURNEY said this morning that it’s too soon for Trump or his allies to seek to prohibit Georgia prosecutors from continuing to investigate him — in large part because he hasn’t been indicted yet, Kyle Cheney writes. From McBurney’s ruling: “[F]or some, being the subject of a criminal investigation can, a la Rumpelstiltskin, be turned into golden political capital, making it seem more providential than problematic.” Meanwhile, Atlanta is bracing for indictments.
- Security measures are going up around the Fulton County Courthouse downtown, “the most visible sign yet of the looming charging decision in a case that has ensnared not only Trump but several high-profile Republicans who could either face charges or stand witness in a potential trial unlike anything seen before in this Southern metropolis,” WaPo’s Holly Bailey writes from Atlanta.
- The attention will now turn to a pair of grand jury panels, which will hand down any decision. While it’s not known which one is handling the Trump case at this point, one of the juries meets on Mondays and Tuesdays, with the other convening on Thursdays and Fridays.
- And just for the record, Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS says there is no connection between her inquiry and the DOJ investigation led by special counsel JACK SMITH. “I don’t know what Jack Smith is doing and Jack Smith doesn’t know what I’m doing,” she told WABE’s Sam Gringlas in an interview. “In all honesty, if Jack Smith was standing next to me, I’m not sure I would know who he was. My guess is he probably can’t pronounce my name correctly.”
POLL POSITION — It’s evident that Trump is the frontrunner in the Republican presidential field. But just how commanding is his lead? A new NYT/Siena College poll of likely Republican primary voters offers the latest answer.
- The topline: Trump leads Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS 54% to 17%, a staggering 37-point margin. No other Republican candidate tops 3%.
- The context: “In the half century of modern presidential primaries, no candidate who led his or her nearest rival by at least 20 points at this stage has ever lost a party nomination,” NYT’s Nate Cohn writes.
- DeSantis’ uphill battle: “DeSantis holds just 32 percent of voters who aren’t considering Mr. Trump, with the likes of CHRIS CHRISTIE, TIM SCOTT, MIKE PENCE, NIKKI HALEY and VIVEK RAMASWAMY each attracting between 5 percent and 10 percent of the vote. Among the ‘Never Trump’ group of voters who don’t support Mr. Trump against President Biden in a hypothetical general election rematch, Mr. DeSantis only narrowly leads Mr. Christie, 16 percent to 13 percent.”
- But what if DeSantis clears the field and faces Trump one-on-one? The prospects are still dim: “Yet even if all those candidates disappeared and Mr. DeSantis got a hypothetical one-on-one race against Mr. Trump, he would still lose by a two-to-one margin, 62 percent to 31 percent, the poll found.” See the full poll
Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line: gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): Tackling U.S. methane emissions requires not just will and words, but actions. The Biden Administration would benefit from hearing from the industries driving the most methane emissions reductions, including the natural gas and oil industry. API’s members are innovating to mitigate emissions, and thanks to industry actions, U.S. methane emissions intensity from energy production is way down. With smart regulations, Washington and energy producers can deliver emissions reductions together while strengthening America’s energy security. | | | 2024 WATCH DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — One of the big questions going into today was what exactly is going on inside Never Back Down, the DeSantis’ super PAC? The answer: Never Back Down “raked in donations of $1 million or more from at least seven wealthy Republican benefactors or their companies, according to internal documents from the group, and had nearly $97 million in cash-on-hand at the end of June,” WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Maeve Reston report, a steep figure that has given the organization a leg up in building out a campaign operation that dwarfs many of his fellow challengers. Who’s behind him: “The super PAC’s fundraising haul includes millions from former supporters of Donald Trump who publicly cut ties after the 2021 U.S. Capitol riots, including Nevada hotel magnate ROBERT BIGELOW, who gave more than $20 million, and Silicon Valley investor DOUGLAS M. LEONE, who gave $2 million. The two biggest donors in Republican politics during the 2022 midterm cycle, packaging magnates RICHARD and ELIZABETH UIHLEIN, also gave $1 million each.” Related read: “DeSantis unveils economic plan, aim to ease process for discharging student loans through bankruptcy,” by Kierra Frazier MORE ON THE FILINGS — The DeSantis super PAC disclosure to WaPo came ahead of today’s FEC deadline for political action committees to file financial reports covering the beginning of the year through June 30. Our colleagues Madison Fernandez and Jessica Piper break down the other big things to watch in the filings. 1. Trump is raising a lot, but he may also be spending a lot
2. More clues into JOE BIDEN’s light-touch campaign
3. Super PACs supporting second-tier candidates could play a big role
4. ActBlue and WinRed filings will show just how stark the small-dollar drop has been SOMETIMES THE HEADLINE SAYS IT ALL — “RFK Jr. says he’s not anti-vaccine. His record shows the opposite. It’s one of many inconsistencies,” by AP’s Michelle Smith and Ali Swenson MORE POLITICS SUCCESSOR SET-UP — Georgia GOP AG CHRIS CARR is telling a “growing number of Republican activists and elected officials that he will run for governor in 2026 to succeed incumbent BRIAN KEMP, a close political ally who can’t run for a third term,” The Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports. TARGET LIST — The Democratic Attorneys General Association is making it a mission to pick up at least one of three red-state seats in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana in 2023, according to a new memo seen by The New Republic’s Grace Segers. According to an internal memo circulated by DAGA, the Dems argue that they have an upperhand on public safety, “contending that GOP candidates and incumbents are ‘more focused on advancing Washington Republicans’ extremist agenda than keeping their constituents safe.’” The memo also highlights abortion as an area where Dems can hit back at Republicans in these states.
| | | | ATTENTION PLAYBOOKERS! You need to keep up with the latest political news and nuggets, so here’s a juicy tip: You need to add California Playbook to your daily reading. We have a new team at the helm who are eager to take you inside the political arena in California, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley and throughout the Golden State! Get the latest exclusive news and buzzy scoops from the fourth largest economy in the world sent straight to your inbox. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | TRUMP CARDS DAY IN COURT — “New defendant in Trump documents case makes first court appearance but still needs a Florida attorney,” by Kimberly Leonard in Miami: “Mar-a-Lago property manager CARLOS DE OLIVEIRA only heard the charges against him and received pre-trial orders, including turning over his expired passport, after his Washington, D.C.-based attorney JOHN IRVING told the court that his client couldn’t find an attorney authorized to practice in the South Florida district, and requested an extension. Magistrate judge EDWIN TORRES granted the extension to August 10.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD FOR YOUR RADAR — Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is “likely” to attend the U.N. General Assembly set for September in New York City, “where he is expected to make the case for his ‘peace formula’ plan,” Bloomberg’s Alberto Nardelli and Jennifer Jacobs report. The “10-point blueprint for ending the conflict calls for Russian troops to withdraw completely from Ukraine, release all prisoners of war and deportees, and ensure food and energy security. It also includes security guarantees for Ukraine once the fighting ends and aims to restore safety around the occupied nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which he says is at risk from Russian sabotage.” SCOTUS WATCH THE REAL-WORLD IMPACT — “College Applicants Ask: Can I Mention My Race, or Not?” by WSJ’s Melissa Korn: “Colleges are scrambling this summer to respond to a Supreme Court ruling that sharply curtails how they can consider an applicant’s race in admission decisions. That leaves rising high-school seniors eyeing the most selective schools in uncharted territory, making an already fraught process far more stressful. Most college applications go live on Aug. 1.”
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | POLICY CORNER THE 411 ON 702 — “Intelligence Board Recommends Curbing F.B.I.’s Power to Use Surveillance Program,” by NYT’s Charlie Savage: “The panel, known as the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, suggested barring the bureau from searching a database of intercepted information when looking for evidence about Americans in criminal investigations that do not involve foreign intelligence. Under the proposal, however, the F.B.I. could still conduct such searches in investigations related to national security.” SPY VS. SPY — “Who Paid for a Mysterious Spy Tool? The F.B.I., an F.B.I. Inquiry Found,” by NYT’s Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman and Adam Goldman: “Why did the F.B.I. hire this contractor — which the bureau had previously authorized to purchase a different NSO tool under a cover name — for sensitive information-gathering operations outside the United States? And why was there apparently so little oversight?” MILITARY MALAISE — “Americans’ confidence in the U.S. military lowest in 2 decades, poll finds,” by Christine Mui: “Only 60 percent of Americans expressed “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the military in a recent Gallup poll conducted from June 1 to 22. That’s down from 64 percent who said the same last year.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY CLIMATE CONUNDRUM — “Heat Is Costing the U.S. Economy Billions in Lost Productivity,” by NYT’s Coral Davenport: “Extreme heat is regularly affecting workers beyond expected industries like agriculture and construction. Sizzling temperatures are causing problems for those who work in factories, warehouses and restaurants and also for employees of airlines and telecommunications firms, delivery services and energy companies.” PLAYBOOKERS MEDIA MOVE — Daniel Strauss is joining CNN as a national politics reporter. He previously was a staff writer and senior political correspondent for The New Republic. TRANSITIONS — Koren Wong-Ervin is joining Jones Day as a partner in the antitrust and competition law practice. She previously was a partner at Axinn, Veltrop & Harkrider. … Jeffrey Cottle is now a partner at Eversheds Sutherland. He previously was a partner at Brown Rudnick. ENGAGED — Brendan Shanahan, lieutenant JG in the Navy, and Macaulay Porter, press secretary for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin got engaged on Saturday at Castle Inn Lighthouse in Newport, R. I. The couple met through friends in 2015. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jeff Bechdel, managing director at FTI Consulting, and Riley Bechdel, partner at Forbes Tate Partners, welcomed Harry Steedman Bechdel on Tuesday. Pic BONUS BIRTHDAY: Alana Peisner of Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-Calif.) office Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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