DEBT DEAL HITS THE FLOOR — The bipartisan debt limit deal cleared its first hurdle, fending off a fizzled rebellion in the House Rules committee, and is now headed for its next test: winning approval in the House. The package appears to be on track to get the votes needed from both sides of the aisle to clear the House, though around 30 House Republicans went public Tuesday with their intentions to vote against the bill with dozens more saying they remained undecided. That is putting the whip operations in overdrive to secure all the votes they can ahead of the vote, which isn’t expected until about 8:30 p.m. tonight. “Tom Emmer is not here right now because there's whipping is still going on,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told reporters at a 10 p.m. press conference last night, excusing the GOP whip’s absence. “There were members this morning who were undecided…by tonight they came up and spoke and said that they're now going to vote for the bill.” Scalise said he anticipates that pattern continuing. Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), one of Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) key negotiators on the deal, made his pitch to his fellow Republicans Tuesday night: “You gave the speaker a strong hand, please stick with us now.” Floor plan: The deal, struck over the weekend between McCarthy and President Joe Biden, will get just one hour of debate on the floor equally divided between Republicans and Democrats. Though before that, the two parties will need to debate and vote on the rule that lays out those parameters. Republicans are expected to need some Democratic help there. We’ll be keeping an eye out on the floor for McCarthy using his so-called “magic minute,” a House custom that allows leaders to talk for as long as they want when they are recognized for their one minute of floor time. House Republican leaders are aiming to deliver a majority of the majority for the deal on the floor, but would like to see even stronger GOP backing. But don’t expect Dems to rush in. While the final vote of the day usually means members press the button, turn and run, Democrats may linger longer. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) made clear his caucus will want to see what kind of numbers the House GOP can put up. “It’s our expectation that House Republicans will keep their promise and deliver at least 150 votes as it relates to an agreement that they themselves negotiated with the White House.” But he added that “House Democrats will make sure that the country does not default.” House Democrats are set to meet this morning at their caucus meeting with John Podesta, a key Biden advisor on clean energy, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council Aviva Arnon-Dine, Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young and counselor to the president Steve Ricchetti. McCarthy’s leadership on the line? The right flank of McCarthy’s conference is furious about how the debt limit deal turned out and at least one member, Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina, has said he’s thinking about calling for snap vote to strip McCarthy of his hard-won speakership. But other conservatives, even those trying to tank the bill, like Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), don’t think McCarthy is truly at risk. "I don't think so. He's genuine in what he said," Norman said leaving the conference meeting Tuesday night. And asked if he wants more Republicans to join him to vote against the bill, he said: "Good people can disagree." Some Democratic appropriators aren’t happy with the bill: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the ranking member of the Appropriations committee, told reporters she has “serious concerns” about the legislation but hadn’t decided yet whether she was going to vote against it. Unsettled score: The Congressional Budget Office released its estimates of the impact that the debt deal would have on the debt, spending and other budgetary effects. The CBO projects that the debt package would expand the number of federal food aid recipients due to the expansion of benefits for veterans and homeless Americans. The expanded eligibility would outweigh the new work requirements for Americans aged 49 and 54 receiving certain benefits. Some House Republicans told our colleague Meredith Lee Hill last night that the CBO is wrong, but there’s a long (and bipartisan) history of trashing CBO scores when they don’t fit the narrative. Not every member will be voting Wednesday. Rep Angie Craig (D-Minn.) will miss the debt ceiling vote after tripping and injuring her ankle, her Chief of Staff Nick Coe said in a statement Tuesday. She will need surgery and her physician advised her not to fly. And Rep. Deborah Ross (D-N.C.) said Tuesday in a tweet that she tested positive for Covid and can’t attend votes as a result. There is one member who will vote Tuesday, however – Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.), who will cast his last vote for the debt limit legislation before his resignation. (Don’t miss POLITICO Magazine’s exit interview with him.) What does this all mean for the margins? Well, that means the simple majority of lawmakers needed to pass the legislation ticks down as absences tick up.
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